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Statistics: The Foundation of Data-Driven Decision Making
Statistics is a foundational pillar of Mathematics, enabling us to understand patterns, make predictions, and draw conclusions from data. It is essential in modern society where vast amounts of data are generated daily across scientific, commercial, and social domains. Whether it’s evaluating medical trials, forecasting the economy, or optimizing algorithms, statistical thinking equips learners with tools to manage uncertainty and interpret complex realities.
In professional disciplines such as Actuarial Science, statistical models are indispensable for quantifying risks in Life Insurance, assessing liabilities in Pension Systems, and structuring sound financial strategies. Techniques from Actuarial Risk Modeling and Investment and Portfolio Management blend statistical reasoning with business insight to inform high-stakes decision-making.
The reach of statistics extends deep into Applied Mathematics, informing approaches to modeling uncertainty and optimizing systems. Fields like Engineering Mathematics, Operations Research, and Computational Mathematics depend on statistical methods to enhance performance, reliability, and efficiency. In Mathematical Physics, probabilistic models aid in simulating physical phenomena and understanding stochastic processes.
The principles of statistics are deeply connected to themes in Pure Mathematics, including Algebra for structuring data relationships, Calculus for continuous distributions, and Mathematical Analysis for defining convergence in estimations. Explorations in Geometry, Number Theory, and Topology offer alternative perspectives on how data may be structured or distributed. Foundational knowledge in these areas deepens one’s ability to apply statistical techniques with rigor.
Students are also introduced to practical subdivisions like Descriptive Statistics, which summarize and visualize data, and Inferential Statistics, which enable generalizations from samples to populations. In increasingly data-intensive industries, such as Physical Technologies, statistical models guide experimentation and performance evaluation. Aerospace fields, such as Aerospace and Aeronautical Engineering, apply statistics in material fatigue testing and reliability assessments. Specialized areas like Aero Control Systems and Robotics and Aero Materials Science harness statistical control charts, regression models, and simulations to improve innovation and reduce risk.
Table of Contents
Focus of Statistics
The primary focus of statistics is on collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data to draw meaningful conclusions and guide decisions. It involves applying rigorous methods to ensure accuracy, reliability, and relevance in handling data, whether for describing current trends, testing hypotheses, or making predictions.Key Objectives of Statistics:
- Summarizing Data: Simplify complex datasets to highlight key characteristics and trends.
- Understanding Relationships: Analyze variables to identify correlations and causations.
- Predicting Outcomes: Use models to forecast future behaviors or events.
- Supporting Decisions: Provide evidence-based insights for strategic planning.
Subfields of Statistics
Descriptive Statistics
- Definition: Summarizing and organizing data to highlight key features and present information clearly.
- Key Techniques:
- Measures of Central Tendency: Calculating the mean (average), median (middle value), and mode (most frequent value).
- Measures of Variability: Analyzing range, variance, and standard deviation to understand data spread.
- Data Visualization: Using graphs, charts, and tables to make data accessible and interpretable.
- Applications:
- Summarizing sales figures for business reporting.
- Understanding demographic distributions in surveys.
- Examples:
- Presenting the average income of households in a city.
- Creating a histogram to display the frequency of test scores in a class.
Inferential Statistics
- Definition: Drawing conclusions about a population based on a representative sample of data.
- Key Techniques:
- Hypothesis Testing: Evaluating claims using statistical significance (e.g., t-tests, chi-square tests).
- Confidence Intervals: Estimating population parameters with a specified degree of certainty.
- Regression Analysis: Identifying relationships between variables and predicting outcomes.
- Applications:
- Predicting voter behavior in elections using opinion polls.
- Testing the effectiveness of a new drug in a clinical trial.
- Examples:
- Determining if a marketing campaign significantly increases sales.
- Estimating the average height of adults in a country based on a sample.
Applications of Statistics
Healthcare
- Overview: Statistics plays a vital role in analyzing patient data, evaluating treatment outcomes, and predicting disease trends.
- Applications:
- Designing clinical trials to test new medications or procedures.
- Identifying risk factors for diseases through epidemiological studies.
- Examples:
- Analyzing the effectiveness of vaccines based on trial results.
- Predicting the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19 using statistical models.
Marketing and Business
- Overview: Statistics helps businesses understand customer behavior, optimize marketing strategies, and improve product development.
- Applications:
- Segmenting customers based on purchasing habits and preferences.
- Measuring the impact of advertising campaigns through A/B testing.
- Examples:
- Determining the most effective price point for a product.
- Analyzing social media engagement to refine brand messaging.
Education
- Overview: Educators and policymakers use statistics to evaluate student performance, curriculum effectiveness, and resource allocation.
- Applications:
- Identifying achievement gaps among student demographics.
- Assessing the impact of new teaching methods on learning outcomes.
- Examples:
- Analyzing standardized test scores to inform curriculum revisions.
- Evaluating the success rates of scholarship programs.
Public Policy and Government
- Overview: Governments use statistical analysis to inform policy decisions, allocate resources, and evaluate program effectiveness.
- Applications:
- Monitoring unemployment rates and economic growth.
- Designing and evaluating public health interventions.
- Examples:
- Calculating the poverty rate to guide social welfare programs.
- Measuring the impact of minimum wage laws on employment trends.
Emerging Trends in Statistics
Data Science Integration
- Combining traditional statistical methods with modern computational tools like machine learning and big data analytics.
- Applications: Developing predictive models for personalized medicine or customer recommendations.
Real-Time Analytics
- Analyzing streaming data for instant decision-making in areas like financial trading or traffic management.
- Applications: Monitoring social media sentiment for crisis management or brand reputation.
Bayesian Statistics
- Applying Bayesian methods to update predictions and probabilities as new data becomes available.
- Applications: Enhancing predictive models in weather forecasting or stock market analysis.
Ethical Statistics
- Ensuring responsible use of data by addressing biases, protecting privacy, and maintaining transparency.
- Applications: Designing fair algorithms for hiring or credit approval.
Challenges in Statistics
-
Data Quality and Availability:
- Ensuring datasets are accurate, complete, and representative of the population being studied.
-
Interpreting Results:
- Communicating complex statistical findings to non-experts in an understandable manner.
-
Bias and Misuse:
- Identifying and correcting biases in data collection and analysis to avoid misleading conclusions.
-
Scalability:
- Adapting statistical methods to handle increasingly large and complex datasets.
Why Study Statistics
Interpreting Data Effectively
Statistics equips students with the tools to collect, analyze, and interpret data. It enables them to draw conclusions and make decisions based on evidence. This competency is essential in today’s data-driven world.
Broad Applications Across Fields
Statistical methods are used in economics, psychology, health, politics, and many more disciplines. Studying statistics allows students to contribute meaningfully in diverse areas. It is a universally applicable skill set.
Understanding Uncertainty and Risk
Statistics helps quantify uncertainty and assess risk. This is crucial for forecasting, quality control, and scientific research. Students learn to make informed judgments under incomplete information.
Critical Thinking and Skepticism
By analyzing how data can be manipulated or misinterpreted, students develop skepticism and analytical rigor. They learn to question sources, methodologies, and conclusions. These habits are essential for academic and professional integrity.
Data Literacy for the Future
Statistical literacy is increasingly vital in the age of big data and artificial intelligence. Students gain skills to manage and interpret data responsibly. This prepares them for careers in analytics, research, and policy-making.
Statistics: Conclusion
Statistics is a cornerstone of modern decision-making, providing the tools to analyze, interpret, and act on data across a vast range of disciplines. Its subfields, such as descriptive and inferential statistics, enable researchers, businesses, and policymakers to gain insights, test hypotheses, and predict future trends. As new challenges and opportunities emerge in fields like data science and real-time analytics, statistics continues to evolve, offering innovative solutions to address complex problems. The discipline’s versatility and rigor ensure its enduring relevance in a data-driven world.
Statistics Review Questions and Answers:
What is statistics and why is it important in research and decision making?
Answer: Statistics is the branch of mathematics concerned with collecting, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting data. It plays a crucial role in research by providing methods to understand and quantify uncertainty and variability in data. Through statistical techniques, researchers can draw reliable conclusions, test hypotheses, and make informed decisions. Its applications range from scientific research to business analytics, making it indispensable in both academic and practical contexts.How do descriptive and inferential statistics differ in their approaches and applications?
Answer: Descriptive statistics summarize and organize data through measures such as mean, median, mode, and standard deviation, offering a clear picture of the data’s central tendency and variability. In contrast, inferential statistics use sample data to make predictions or generalizations about a larger population through techniques like hypothesis testing and confidence intervals. This distinction is critical because descriptive statistics provide insights into what the data show, while inferential statistics allow for conclusions and decision-making beyond the immediate data set. Both approaches are essential for a comprehensive understanding of statistical data.What role does probability play in the field of statistics?
Answer: Probability forms the foundation of statistical inference by quantifying the uncertainty inherent in data and events. It provides a framework for modeling random phenomena and assessing the likelihood of various outcomes. In statistics, probability is used to construct distributions, test hypotheses, and make predictions based on sample data. This integration of probability and statistics enables researchers to evaluate risks, estimate parameters, and make decisions under uncertainty, which is vital for many scientific and practical applications.What are the common measures of central tendency and dispersion used in statistics?
Answer: Common measures of central tendency include the mean, median, and mode, which summarize the typical or central value of a data set. Measures of dispersion, such as the range, variance, and standard deviation, describe the spread or variability of the data. These statistical tools provide a comprehensive summary of the data by indicating not only where most values lie but also how much they differ from each other. Together, these measures offer a complete picture of the data distribution, which is essential for effective data analysis and interpretation.How is hypothesis testing conducted in statistics, and what are its main components?
Answer: Hypothesis testing in statistics involves formulating a null hypothesis (H₀) and an alternative hypothesis (H₁), then using sample data to determine whether to reject H₀. The process includes selecting an appropriate test statistic, determining the significance level (α), and calculating a p-value to measure the strength of the evidence. Based on these components, a decision is made regarding the null hypothesis, which helps in drawing conclusions about the population. This systematic method is essential for making informed inferences and validating research findings.What are confidence intervals and how do they contribute to statistical inference?
Answer: Confidence intervals provide a range of values within which the true population parameter is expected to lie with a certain degree of confidence, usually expressed as a percentage. They are calculated based on sample data and offer a measure of the precision of an estimate. Confidence intervals contribute to statistical inference by quantifying uncertainty and providing a probabilistic framework for decision-making. This method allows researchers to assess the reliability of their estimates and supports robust conclusions in both academic and practical settings.How do regression analysis and correlation help in understanding relationships between variables?
Answer: Regression analysis and correlation are statistical techniques used to examine the relationships between variables. Correlation quantifies the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables, while regression analysis models the relationship and predicts the value of a dependent variable based on one or more independent variables. These methods are essential for identifying trends, testing hypotheses, and making predictions in a variety of fields, from economics to the natural sciences. They provide valuable insights into how variables interact and influence each other, which is fundamental for data-driven decision-making.What is the importance of sampling methods in statistics and how do they affect data analysis?
Answer: Sampling methods are critical in statistics because they allow researchers to draw conclusions about a large population from a manageable subset of data. The choice of sampling technique, such as random, stratified, or cluster sampling, directly affects the representativeness and reliability of the results. Proper sampling minimizes bias and ensures that the sample accurately reflects the population, which is essential for valid inference. Effective sampling is the cornerstone of statistical research, as it enables accurate estimation of population parameters and supports robust hypothesis testing.How are probability distributions used in statistical analysis, and what are some common examples?
Answer: Probability distributions describe how the values of a random variable are distributed and provide a framework for modeling uncertainty. They are used in statistical analysis to calculate probabilities, estimate parameters, and make predictions. Common examples include the normal distribution, which models many natural phenomena, the binomial distribution for discrete outcomes, and the Poisson distribution for count data. Understanding these distributions is vital for applying appropriate statistical tests and for interpreting data accurately.How does the Central Limit Theorem underpin many statistical procedures and analyses?
Answer: The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) states that the distribution of sample means approximates a normal distribution, regardless of the shape of the original population distribution, as the sample size becomes large. This theorem underpins many statistical procedures by justifying the use of normal distribution-based methods for inference, such as confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. The CLT allows for the approximation of probabilities and error estimates in diverse applications, ensuring that statistical methods remain robust even when dealing with non-normal data. Its universal applicability makes the CLT one of the most important results in statistics.
Thought-Provoking Statistics Questions and Answers
How can emerging big data technologies transform the application of statistics in decision-making?
Answer: Emerging big data technologies have the potential to revolutionize statistical analysis by enabling the processing and analysis of massive datasets that were previously impractical to handle. These advancements allow for more detailed and nuanced insights into complex phenomena by uncovering patterns and trends that smaller datasets may not reveal. Big data technologies facilitate real-time analysis, predictive modeling, and advanced visualization, all of which enhance the decision-making process by providing a more comprehensive view of the underlying data.
Furthermore, the integration of big data with advanced statistical techniques can lead to more accurate and timely predictions, significantly improving operational efficiency in sectors such as healthcare, finance, and logistics. This convergence of technology and statistics is poised to drive innovation, allowing organizations to make more informed decisions and respond swiftly to dynamic market conditions and emerging trends.What ethical considerations arise from the widespread use of statistical data in shaping public policy?
Answer: The widespread use of statistical data in public policy raises important ethical issues, including data privacy, consent, and the potential for bias in data collection and analysis. It is crucial that data is collected and used transparently to avoid infringing on individual privacy and to ensure that the conclusions drawn are fair and representative of the population. Additionally, policymakers must be cautious of misinterpreting statistical results, which could lead to decisions that disproportionately affect certain groups or perpetuate existing inequalities.
To address these ethical concerns, robust guidelines and regulatory frameworks need to be established to govern data usage. Transparency in methodology, regular audits, and stakeholder engagement are essential to build trust and ensure that statistical analyses are conducted responsibly. By prioritizing ethical practices, public policy can benefit from data-driven insights while safeguarding individual rights and promoting social justice.How might advancements in machine learning enhance traditional statistical methods?
Answer: Machine learning advancements can enhance traditional statistical methods by providing tools to analyze complex and high-dimensional datasets more efficiently. These techniques can automate the process of model selection, parameter tuning, and feature extraction, which traditionally require extensive manual effort. Machine learning algorithms can identify subtle patterns and interactions within data that may be overlooked by conventional statistical methods, leading to improved predictive accuracy and deeper insights.
Answer: Furthermore, the integration of machine learning with classical statistics can create hybrid models that leverage the strengths of both approaches. This synergy not only improves the robustness and adaptability of statistical models but also accelerates the discovery of new relationships within data. As a result, machine learning is set to transform various fields by enhancing the precision and scope of statistical analysis in real-world applications.What role does statistical inference play in bridging the gap between sample data and population insights?
Answer: Statistical inference is the process by which conclusions about a population are drawn from a sample of data, using probability theory to measure uncertainty and variability. It bridges the gap between the finite observations collected in a sample and the broader characteristics of an entire population by employing methods such as hypothesis testing and confidence intervals. This process is critical for making generalizations and informed decisions in the absence of complete data, ensuring that the conclusions are statistically valid and reliable.
In practice, statistical inference allows researchers to estimate population parameters, test theories, and make predictions that inform decision-making across various fields. By rigorously quantifying uncertainty, it provides a systematic framework that supports robust analysis and fosters a deeper understanding of real-world phenomena. The power of inference lies in its ability to transform limited data into meaningful insights, thereby driving progress in both academic research and practical applications.How can visualization techniques improve the interpretation and communication of complex statistical data?
Answer: Visualization techniques are essential for interpreting and communicating complex statistical data as they transform raw numbers into graphical representations that are easier to understand and analyze. Charts, graphs, and interactive dashboards help reveal trends, patterns, and outliers that might be obscured in a table of numbers. These visual tools enable statisticians and decision makers to quickly grasp the underlying story of the data, facilitating more informed and timely decisions.
Moreover, effective visualizations enhance transparency and allow for better communication between technical experts and non-specialist stakeholders. By presenting data in a clear and engaging manner, visualization techniques make it possible to convey complex concepts succinctly and persuasively, thus bridging the gap between rigorous analysis and practical decision-making.What challenges do statisticians face in ensuring the quality and reliability of data, and how can these be overcome?
Answer: Statisticians often encounter challenges such as missing data, measurement errors, and sampling biases, which can compromise the quality and reliability of analyses. Ensuring high-quality data involves rigorous data cleaning, validation, and the use of robust sampling techniques to minimize errors and biases. Advanced statistical methods and software tools can help detect anomalies and adjust for inconsistencies, ensuring that the dataset accurately reflects the underlying population.
Overcoming these challenges requires a combination of technical expertise, careful experimental design, and continuous quality control measures. By implementing standardized protocols for data collection and employing modern data analysis techniques, statisticians can enhance the reliability of their findings. This approach not only improves the accuracy of statistical inferences but also builds trust in the conclusions drawn from the data.How do non-parametric methods differ from parametric methods in statistical analysis, and what are their advantages?
Answer: Non-parametric methods differ from parametric methods in that they do not assume a specific form for the underlying population distribution, making them more flexible when dealing with non-normal or unknown distributions. These methods rely on the rank and order of the data rather than on parameterized models, which makes them particularly useful when the assumptions of parametric tests are violated. The primary advantage of non-parametric methods is their robustness, as they are less affected by outliers and skewed data.
Additionally, non-parametric methods are often easier to apply in situations where the sample size is small or the data is ordinal, providing reliable results without stringent assumptions. This flexibility allows researchers to analyze a wide variety of datasets and ensures that conclusions remain valid even under less-than-ideal conditions. As a result, non-parametric techniques are a valuable complement to traditional parametric methods in statistical analysis.What impact does the Central Limit Theorem have on the field of statistics and data analysis?
Answer: The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) has a profound impact on statistics by stating that the sampling distribution of the sample mean approaches a normal distribution as the sample size increases, regardless of the original population distribution. This theorem is foundational because it justifies the use of normal probability models in many statistical procedures, such as hypothesis testing and the construction of confidence intervals. The CLT allows statisticians to make inferences about population parameters even when the underlying distribution is unknown or non-normal.
Its implications extend to various practical applications, enabling the simplification of complex data analysis tasks by approximating distributions with a normal curve. The CLT is central to many modern statistical methods, making it one of the most important results in probability theory and data analysis. This theorem ensures that statistical techniques remain robust and applicable across a wide range of scenarios.How might Bayesian statistical methods alter traditional approaches to data analysis?
Answer: Bayesian statistical methods alter traditional data analysis by incorporating prior beliefs or information into the analysis process, updating these beliefs as new data becomes available. This approach allows for a more flexible and dynamic interpretation of statistical results, where uncertainty is quantified in terms of probability distributions. Bayesian methods enable decision-makers to combine prior knowledge with current evidence, leading to more nuanced and context-specific inferences. This paradigm shift provides a powerful alternative to frequentist methods, particularly in situations with limited or evolving data.
Additionally, the Bayesian framework facilitates the development of predictive models that can adapt over time, enhancing the accuracy and reliability of forecasts. It also supports a coherent decision-making process by quantifying the uncertainty associated with each inference, thus offering deeper insights into the probabilistic nature of the data. As computational tools advance, Bayesian methods are becoming increasingly accessible and influential in various fields of research.How can robust statistical techniques improve the reliability of experimental research?
Answer: Robust statistical techniques improve the reliability of experimental research by providing methods that are less sensitive to outliers and violations of model assumptions. These techniques, such as robust regression and non-parametric tests, ensure that results remain valid even when data do not perfectly adhere to theoretical distributions. By mitigating the influence of anomalies and measurement errors, robust methods enhance the precision and credibility of statistical inferences. This reliability is critical for drawing accurate conclusions and making informed decisions in experimental research.
Moreover, robust techniques facilitate the detection of true effects in the presence of noise and variability, thereby strengthening the overall findings of a study. They also provide a safeguard against the overinterpretation of spurious results, contributing to the integrity and reproducibility of scientific research. This approach ultimately leads to more trustworthy outcomes and advances the reliability of experimental methodologies.What are the potential limitations of classical statistical methods when applied to modern data sets?
Answer: Classical statistical methods often assume ideal conditions such as normality, homoscedasticity, and independence, which may not hold true for modern, complex datasets. These limitations can lead to inaccurate inferences, biased estimates, or underestimation of uncertainty when the underlying assumptions are violated. Modern data sets, characterized by high dimensionality, missing values, and heterogeneity, require more flexible and robust analytical techniques. The challenges posed by these limitations highlight the need for advanced methods such as non-parametric and machine learning approaches that can accommodate the complexities of real-world data.
Additionally, classical methods may struggle with scalability as data volumes increase, necessitating the integration of computational techniques and algorithms designed for big data. Adapting traditional approaches to incorporate modern statistical innovations is crucial for maintaining accuracy and relevance in the era of data science.How can the integration of data visualization enhance the interpretation of statistical findings?
Answer: Data visualization plays a crucial role in enhancing the interpretation of statistical findings by transforming complex numerical data into accessible visual formats such as graphs, charts, and interactive dashboards. Effective visualizations help identify patterns, trends, and outliers that may not be immediately evident from raw data. This not only aids in understanding the underlying relationships but also facilitates clearer communication of results to non-expert audiences. Visual representation of data can reveal insights that drive better decision-making and highlight areas requiring further investigation.
Moreover, integrating data visualization into statistical analysis encourages exploratory data analysis and iterative refinement of models. It allows researchers to quickly test hypotheses and adjust parameters based on visual feedback, ultimately leading to more robust and actionable insights. This synergy between visualization and statistical analysis enriches the overall process and empowers stakeholders with a deeper understanding of the data.
Statistics Problems and Solutions
- Calculating a Confidence Interval for a Mean:
Solution:
Given a sample mean
use the formula for a 95% confidence interval:
For n = 25, degrees of freedom = 24. Assume t* ≈ 2.064.
Compute margin of error:
Therefore, the confidence interval is
, or approximately
- Performing a Hypothesis Test for a Proportion:
Solution:
Suppose a survey shows that 60 out of 100 people prefer a product, and we want to test if the true proportion is 50% using a z-test.
Under
compute the test statistic
For a significance level of 0.05 (two-tailed), the critical z-values are ±1.96. Since 2 > 1.96, we reject
- Calculating the Sample Size for a Given Margin of Error:
Solution:
To estimate a population mean with a margin of error of 3, assuming standard deviation σ = 12 and 95% confidence level (z=1.96), use the formula:
Substitute:
Rounding up, n=62 samples are needed.
- Computing a t-Test for Two Independent Samples:
Solution:
Suppose two samples have means 100 and 110, standard deviations 15 and 20, and sample sizes 25 and 30 respectively.
First, calculate the pooled standard deviation
Next, compute the t-statistic:
Calculate standard error:
Then,
Compare with critical t-value for df=53 at 0.05 significance level.
- Performing a Chi-Square Test for Goodness-of-Fit:
Solution:
Given observed frequencies [30, 50, 20] and expected frequencies [33.33, 33.33, 33.33] for three categories, compute
Calculate:
Compute each term:
Sum:
With 2 degrees of freedom, compare to the critical value (approx 5.99 at 0.05 level); hence, significant deviation.
- Calculating the Correlation Coefficient from Data:
Solution:
Suppose we have paired data points for X and Y, and after calculations, we find
The correlation coefficient is
- Determining the Least-Squares Regression Line:
Solution:
- Given data points with
, and sample size n=5, first compute the slope:
Next, compute the intercept:
Thus, the regression line is
- Calculating the Probability Using a Normal Distribution:
Solution:
Assume a normal distribution with mean μ=50 and standard deviation σ=5. Find the probability that a value is between 45 and 55.
Compute z-scores:
and
Using standard normal tables,
Therefore, the probability is approximately 68.26%.
- Determining the Sample Size for a Margin of Error in Estimation:
Solution:
To estimate a mean with a margin of error E=2, assuming σ=8 and 95% confidence (z=1.96), use
Substitute:
Rounding up, n=62.
- Calculating a t-Statistic for a Single Sample Mean:
Solution:
Suppose a sample of 16 observations has a mean of 78 and a standard deviation of 10. Test
The t-statistic is
With 15 degrees of freedom, compare to the critical t-value for the desired significance level.
- Performing a Chi-Square Test for Independence:
Solution:
- Given a contingency table with observed frequencies, calculate expected frequencies using
- Compute
across all cells.
- Compare the calculated
to the critical value with appropriate degrees of freedom to determine independence.
- Calculating the p-value from a z-Test:
Solution:
For a z-test statistic of 2.5 in a two-tailed test, first find the one-tailed probability using standard normal tables:
For two tails, p-value = 2 × 0.0062 = 0.0124.
Therefore, the p-value is approximately 0.0124, indicating significance at the 5% level.